Art of fighting with itself

For a start it is still necessary to determine the terms. I propose the following interpretation: indecision - the trader inaction in situations where, for whatever their own rules, he should enter the market, as well as of the trader, leading to the untimely closure of profitable or unprofitable positions; paralysis - the next stage of indecision, occurs usually after non-compliance of the order (protection against losses) in the event of an avalanche-like increase of losses. In the end, should close a losing position broker (for lack of funds) or spontaneous emotional closing position by the trader.

In my opinion, these problems are more inherent to still beginners, because if a person has worked for two or three years on the market, it faces a different kind of psychological problems. Therefore, all subsequent arguments are, rather, to newcomers who are just planning to enter the stock market or have recently plunged into this environment. From my observations, the trader indecision is manifested most often in the first period after launch. The problem of indecision as to the definition, involves two aspects: first - to enter the market, the second - out of the market. The most interesting is that despite all the evidence the second aspect often overlooked in the general description of trading strategies. For the beginners at first rather difficult to understand the ever-expanding variety of indicators - and not at book examples, not on a demo account, but on their own money - and to evaluate the significance and interactions of these indicators. During this period, it is important to understand that psychologically comfortable trader - to hold a position between the days or only work within the day. It is with feelings of inner peace and should be adjusted to work not only a combination of (their) indicators, but the time scales of operation.

As rightly observes A. Bryuzgin in his article, limiting the number of methods and indicators used much easier life trader. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the simultaneous use of trend indicators and oscillators in the initial phase and may significantly complicate the work of the trader, especially considering that the last time a large number of analytical reports on market terms <overbought / resold> there are often unreasonable. The transition to the study of trade practices on the basis of Elliott waves, with their variety of interpretations, it is possible only after the successful development of simpler methods.
An ounce of practice or theory poods?

Just as with the choice of indicators, the restriction of <time slices> of the market greatly simplifies life. I have seen traders who tried to work on exotic time intervals, for example, a 23-minute combined with 36 - and 53-min. After that select other time slots, all over again. Naturally, in the process of studying the interactions of the basic 23-minute chart with a 48-minute completely lost the purpose for which any person comes to the market - to make transactions and earn money. If the theoretical refinements trader clearly take precedence over working directly in the market, the only advice I can give chto in this situation - get to work by the analyst. So people do not help and mechanical trading systems, because after receiving a signal from the MTS still need to act and not to engage in its regular setting, comforting myself that and MTS also wrong and this signal <exactly> - false.

As can be seen from the definition, should be attributed to indecision and inaction-action at the time of finding a position. That uncertainty does not increase profits (if the position is selected correctly) and allows you to accumulate losses. Naturally, when the paper profit on the transaction increases, the faster really want to turn this into an actual profit and no longer drag myself to the psychological burden of open positions. Perhaps, this situation is decisive in the choice of time intervals with which the trader to work comfortably. The correct choice of this interval may help in resolving the issue of premature closure of a profitable position. Exit position with a restriction of losses is the cornerstone of all activities of a trader, and indecision when you exit a losing position may result in complete loss of control.

If the stop-loss orders, placed on the basis of technical analysis is not performed because of indecision, then try to set the maximum amount of losses on the portfolio per month (for example, 5%, as traders restrict banks), and if losses exceed this amount - immediately liquidate all positions and do not start to trade until early next month. Otherwise, you just fill up the ranks pretty harmless little animals with which they cut hair professionals. So, if you violate this rule, have lost more in percentage you set the same values, but the position is still open, it is likely onset of paralysis. Determine the state of paralysis is simple enough, and although different people have emotional manifestations of this condition are different, there is a trader slang for long term (warm bath).

When you get into paralysis <warm bath>, consisting of his own sweat, fear and despair. And it is very contrasting state - at times the market moves in your favor you will get temporary relief, even experiencing elation, and then another, deeper plunge in (warm bath). At this time, you are no longer able to adequately assess not only the market, but many things around you, not associated with the market.

You proofread comments of experts in the hope of encouraging words about the imminent spread and angry when stupid analysts see no sign of the long-awaited reversal. Are you ready all night to watch the rest of the world trades from Japan to the States. I think it is not necessary to explain that when the state of this you just need to close all positions and for a time to leave the market. And it's better to do it yourself, but do not leave an unpleasant procedure to your broker - believe me, he is also no pleasure. If you think of the category of people who state such a pleasure, sooner or later you will lose everything and will seek other, cheaper pleasures, than the pain of loss test on the stock market.
We form a portfolio

In terms of recommendations for overcoming Bryuzgin indecision, then, in my opinion, the recipe for a trade paper just does not hold water. Fixation on a paper not only help you to overcome indecision, but also can exacerbate your problems. You do not become an expert of one paper. Such a strategy is more risky emotional attachment to the position. Even if you have enough determination to enter the market, then get out of it by selling a paper, much harder.

There is a danger of a certain narcissism - you'll enjoy the position in the instants of the profit, (care) for her as a sick child in times of loss, but had never been to <shoot>. And during a lull in the paper will experience more and more indicators and trading systems. As a result, you lose the big picture of the market. I, for one, is hard to imagine a successful dentist who specializes exclusively in the right fang of the upper jaw.

To overcome the hesitation to work as possible with plenty of liquid securities, especially because the Russian market are not so much. With this approach, the problem with the entrance-exit from the market mitigated by the fact that the discharge passes from the category of psychological engineering. You simply will not have time to concentrate on his indecision, since we have time to review some papers and place orders. This will more easily understood by the general trends of the market movement that will save a certain number of losing trades, and thus give you more confidence in their abilities.

If paralyzed, then go and tell others about it is useless to rely on dreams - no sense (rather, it is just another symptom), just need to close all the time and leave the market. Only this recipe to overcome the paralysis of effective, rather than the three (major steps), which writes A. Bryuzgin. However, I do not deny it (except for (position) of dreams) that the conduct of basic records of transactions and the existence of supervisory authority (even in the face of relatives and friends) to reduce the risk of falling into a state of paralysis.

Well, a few words in conclusion. By and large, the problem of indecision and paralysis - a small part of what is called money management. That expert management of capital, combined with mandatory risk assessments, and is the basis for long life in any market, not just the stock. We must understand that the market - no place for amateurs. If you want to be a professional speculator, working for their money, not the investor (sorry for the old joke: (bad speculator turns to the investor)), then approach the matter professionally. As a test of professionalism I offer the following problem.

When yields 60, 80, 100% per annum (choose) calculate the initial amount of money for the stock market, provided that you do not work anywhere else and get a monthly salary (!!!) from the market at 500, 600 .... 1000 cu (Select the appropriate size). Try to take into account all costs such as payment seats in the dealing room or use the Internet, brokerage, fees for margin loans (if you intend to use them).

STOCK EXCHANGES AND THEIR FUNCTIONS

The stock exchange is a loan market, which is trading in securities - stocks, bonds, stocks, etc., often called the more general term "property titles," or just titles, as well as the trade payment instruments denominated in foreign currency mottos . Trade slogans often performed on special stock, called deviznoy or currency.

    

1. The functions performed STOCK EXCHANGES

The main role of the stock exchange is to serve the movement of money capital, which mediates the distribution and redistribution of national income as a whole in the national economy, and between social groups and sectors of the economy.

Stock Exchange performs the following functions: - the mobilization and concentration of temporarily free money savings, and savings through the sale of the securities exchange intermediaries in the primary and secondary stock markets, lending and financing of public and private sector by buying their securities in the primary market and resale in the secondary, as well as lending and financing speculators through trades in the secondary market - the concentration of transactions in securities, setting them on prices that reflect the level and ratio of supply and demand.

Under the primary market professionals understand the market, at which the first sale of securities issued (or new parties, such securities), and a secondary market in which trade is already traded securities.

2. SOME PRINCIPLES AND FEATURES OF THE ORGANIZATION AND FUNCTIONING OF THE STOCK EXCHANGES

Exchange stock quotes are important to the company, as a prerequisite for obtaining loans it provides a favorable picture of the stock performance of their shares (market rate, dividends, total return on stocks, etc.).

The movement of stock prices is influenced by many economic and political factors, which include: return (current and expected interest on the bonds, the expected amount of dividends and growth rates of shares) - the value of borrowing, which in turn depends on the size and money savings savings in the country, the level of business activity, the value of public debt and its shares, financed by issue of securities - investment risk, which affects stability, balance and prospects for economic growth, the reliability of the banking system, bond rate varies widely across the less than with stock price and depends on the ratio between the percentage established by the bonds, and middle-loan interest on this money market, and takes into account the conditions of the loan and the borrower's reliability.

Demand for the securities from investors (investors in securities) is formed on the basis of profitability, liquidity and risk-taking (the ability to quickly implement, that is monetizing) placing them in funds compared to other forms of investment.

Formation of the course, and also the rates published in table of exchange rates, called quotation. To a security quoted on the stock exchange, it should be allowed to quote the decision of the body of the stock exchange.

As quoted on the Stock Exchange at the same time a large number of shares and other securities whose prices are generally moving in different directions, to estimate the average price changes are applied generalize stock index, the most important of which is the Dow Jones index in the U.S..

Stock exchanges can be organized as a private joint-stock companies (UK, Japan, Austria) or as a public-legal institutions (Germany, France). In France, for example, stock exchanges are in fact government agencies and under the Ministry of Finance. In the U.S. stock exchanges are associations, and so the government can not control directly their activities. A special type of regulation of the organized stock market is used in Sweden, where the exchanges are joint stock companies, 50% owned by the government.

The principles of organization of the stock exchange stock exchange is a legal entity, and in matters of the device and the work she enjoys complete autonomy. Activity of the exchange is financed from contributions paid by the exchange, acquired in her "place", the annual contributions of enterprises listed on the stock exchange of its securities, fees from stock transactions and other payments to participants in the exchange and clients (eg, fees for issuing certificates, the registration of transactions, for the provision of advisory units exchange intermediary, information, legal and other services).

In addition to official stock exchange in a number of cities that are centers of stock trading, there are semi-or informal exchanges. In Germany, there are two types of such markets - the "adjustable" and unregulated "observation which, however, carry the official exchange.

Exchange members may be individuals or legal entities. The former includes individual securities traders (specialists in financial and investment issues that meet the qualification requirements of the Exchange). Legal entities are represented on the exchange specialized lending and financial institutions, comprising primarily highly specialized exchange-traded firms (brokerage firms and investment banks), as well as a universal commercial bank. All transactions on the stock exchange are carried out through its members.

The main features of the functioning of stock exchanges stock market Members are divided into two categories. Constitute one of the brokers (brokers) - intermediaries in transactions between buyers and sellers of securities, currencies and other financial assets, receive a fee for mediation (commission or brokerage, in accordance with the established percentages.) Fee based stockbrokers, depending on the size of the transaction.

Brokers appointed by the Exchange Committee. Making the intermediary transactions in securities, brokers acting on behalf and for account of customers. In some cases they may even trade for your account. Currently, the bulk of intermediation have major brokerage firms with large branch networks and have close links with banks.

Another group of stock exchange members are dealers (jobber, specialists) - individuals or firms, banks engaged in buying and selling securities. They act on their behalf and at his own expense. Dealers can only enter into transactions among themselves and with brokers. Brokering of dealers do not deal with and usually do not have the right to make deals directly with customers. Dealers profit generated by the difference between the rate of seller and buyer exchange rate, as well as due to changes in currency exchange rates and securities, that is, ultimately, the difference in the prices at which they buy and sell securities. The presence of jobbers in England and specialists in the U.S., having the right to make transactions only at its own expense, is a characteristic feature of the exchange systems of these countries.

Among the stockbrokers involved in securities transactions, allocate "Bears" and "bull". Speculators who play a fall ("Bears"), sold for a term of the securities, which have not yet, at the rate as recorded in the transaction, and hope that shortly before the end of the deal they can buy securities at a lower rate and sell them at a higher price fixed by the contract futures. Stockbrokers, playing on the increase ("bulls"), by contrast, buy securities for a period of waiting for the appreciation and hope to subsequently sell them profitable.

Compared with stock U.S. and British systems of other countries have some differences. For example, in Germany, members of stock exchanges are primarily foreign exchange brokers. The status - it's public servants, sworn, according to which they should not carry out operations at its own expense. In addition, they can not be co-owners, or members of any commercial firm. Foreign exchange brokers act as intermediaries in trading on the stock exchange - they carry the conclusion of trade deals with securities admitted to official trading, and fixed their exchange rate. Other participants in exchange trading in Germany are special representatives of the banks and so-called free (private) brokers, operating on the stock exchange itself. Bank representatives perform operations on behalf of and at the expense of the bank, which they represent, or act as commissioners in carrying out operations for clients. Only they transmit orders to the exchange on the purchase or sale of securities. Stock exchange banks and their agents, support personnel make up the majority of participants exchanges in Germany.

Free brokers are intermediaries in transactions with all types of securities publicly traded on the stock exchange, but do not install them at the same rate. They regularly publish the prices on the regulated and unregulated markets within its authority. Brokers only mediate between the parties exchange trading, and are not in contact with private investors. The German stock exchange are subject to supervision by the Land governments, which, however, have no right to interfere in the exchange process.

3. BASIC PRINCIPLES OF ORGANIZATION AND FUNCTIONING OF THE STOCK EXCHANGES IN CASE OF EXCHANGE OF SECURITIES IN FRANKFURT am Main

An example of the structure and organization of the stock market can serve as a securities exchange in Frankfurt am Main.

Guide Frankfurt Stock Exchange by the Board (the Board of Governors). Other bodies are the Office for admission to the stock exchange, the Committee for the admission, the Arbitration Court, the Committee of honor. Foreign exchange brokers constitute the House of Brokers, which is a public corporation.

The tasks of the Board include issues relating to the admission of enterprises and individuals to trade on the exchange, management of the organization and process of transactions, supervision of compliance with laws, regulations and conditions relating to exchange transactions, and maintaining order in the exchange, etc. The board consists of 22 members. Office of the admission shall decide on the admission of securities to official quotation.

The Chamber represents the interests of foreign exchange brokers foreign exchange brokers. In its management to oversee the brokers, the distribution of transactions between them (each broker has to "look after" a certain number of securities), observation of fixation rate and the official publication of the course bulletin. Official brokers are subject to rules issued in 1962 by the Minister of Hessen (responsible for oversight of the exchange), which regulate brokerage activities on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

Board admitted to trading on the Stock Exchange both businesses and individuals acting on their behalf and on behalf of individuals, among whom are two types - independent members and employees authorized to trade company, which may enter into transactions for the company.

Other participants in exchange trading in Germany are credit institutions and free brokers. Only banks pass on the stock exchange orders on the purchase or sale of securities. Foreign exchange brokers shall conclude commercial transactions with securities admitted to trading and record their course. Free brokers are intermediaries in deals with all kinds of securities publicly traded on the stock exchange, but do not install them at the same rate.

To finance the costs of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange established a number of fees that are paid for admission to stock exchange trading, and entering for the admission of securities to trade. For the separate use of the premises user pays due compensation in the contract. Importance in financing costs have also exchange earnings from the dissemination of information about the courses.

Legal basis of admission of securities to official stock exchange prescribed by law and ordinances of the governing procedure for admission to the exchange. The company, who wishes to obtain from the Board of admission to trading must comply with the following requirements: - it must declare its willingness to participate in trading in securities or foreign means of payment; - acting for the benefit of the enterprise entity should have the necessary reliability for stock trading and training - holding company of stock exchange transactions must be conducted in strict accordance with the established order - in cases where this is required by exchange rules, the company must submit a performance guarantee of their trades.

The main conditions for admission to official stock exchange trading in Germany are the following: - the total volume of shares admitted to quotation should be at least 0.5 million stamps at face value - the issuer of shares admitted to trading shall be operated as an enterprise is not less than 3 years - admitted to quote the shares must be widely spread among the public, in whose hands should be at least 25% selling shares at cost - application for admission of shares to be distributed to all shares of the same species, etc.

Application for admission to trading on a stock exchange is made with the bank. To this must be accompanied by a number of documents.

Conclusion of the admission of securities to the Exchange Company for the admission made by the Office. Once a decision can be published prospectus. Official quotation begins as a rule, within 3 months. The costs for the introduction of securities include: admission fee, the cost of publishing the statement and prospectus for admission, printing the publication of the annual report, the cost of an invitation to the general meeting and the announcement of dividends.

The meaning of admission procedures is to provide the necessary information to the public. Management is studying for the admission of the documents. The Issuer and the other applicants are responsible for the information submitted for publication in accordance with paragraph 45 of the Exchange.

Methods of quotations may be reduced to two basic ones: - the definition of a common medium of exchange rate on which can be carried out most of the data broker commissions (one course is considered the most representative and, therefore, is usually published in the press) - fixed rates, which were actually signed the deal ( In this case, or publish any change in rates, or just the extreme of their rejection, that is the highest and lowest prices at which transactions have actually been signed.)

On the markets are used as a limited and unlimited application. With limited pricing proposal in the order specified price, which can not exceed about a deal to buy and when to reduce the transaction for the sale. If the order was received unlimited, it means that the order will be executed depending on supply and demand in the market. When buying securities on the price of unlimited client indicates that the transaction should be completed by the lowest possible price. At the sale price for unlimited client indicates that the securities must be sold to the highest possible price.

Obligatory element of the application for stock transactions is an indication of the duration of its action. The possible options, such as "valid only for today", "valid until the end of the month." The application states Exchange, where the operation must be performed.

To 11 am at the Department of stock transactions of the bank are going to all orders received by the bank to perform transactions. Orders are put on the markets and types of securities. At this stage, the bank may itself be involved in the operation. If not, then the exchange agent, receiving customer orders, sent the stock market, where according to tradition, from 11.30 to 13.30 to trade securities, canned local television. Each of the official broker serves a group of stocks, so between them there can be no competition.

Immediately after the commencement of exchange free stock brokers and agents transmit orders to appropriate official brokers. Last initial application are entered in a special book. Applications for operations in a specific order depending on the complexity of transactions, for example, initially the most easily implemented by the transaction - the purchase of "the lowest possible price" and the sale of "the highest possible price." In the present conditions used for this purpose computers.

Approximately 1230 cease filing on share transactions, and 12.15 - deals with applications for bonds. Then begins the establishment of a single course. Along with securities that have a single course, there are securities with a variable rate. On the stock exchanges in Germany the share of such securities is about 20% of all shares listed there and in recent years has tended to increase.

Current quote is that during the exchange of the day always comes to the application of purchase and sale of securities, which leads to a change in official foreign exchange quotations.

Major stock exchanges of the world

New York 1023.2 turnover, mln USD

Tokyo 392.3

Mid-West (USA) 79.1

London 76.4

Osaka 68.1

Pacific (USA) 36.8

Toronto 31.7

U.S. 7.26

Amsterdam 20.0

Paris 08/19

Philadelphia 9.17

Boston 04.14

Stockholm 08.10

Montreal 07/05

Tehran threatens a dollar oil market?

One of the many factors that put pressure on the dollar - the alleged discovery of an oil exchange in Tehran, scheduled for March 20. Tehran Stock Exchange could become the first oil exchange in the world where oil transactions will be carried out not in dollars but in the single European currency.

However, a much greater threat to the dollar is the current account deficit, which in the fourth quarter of 2005 reached 7% of GDP ..

Krassimir Petrov, the Bulgarian professor has published in some media article on the creation of the Iranian Oil Bourse. He described it as "a weapon more powerful than nuclear weapons ..., which can destroy the financial system of the American empire." Petrov and his collaborator, William Clark, who publishes the so-called "Energy Bulletin" believe that the reason the U.S. invaded Iraq in March 2003 was the decision by Saddam Hussein to sell Iraqi oil not in dollars but in euros. These authors believe that it is an attempt to create an Iranian oil exchange, is the underlying cause of the crisis around Iran.

But we think that this is an exaggeration. Try to understand what would happen if Tehran will still bidding for oil in euros.

First, you should imagine what the volume of transactions may be entered into a new market. Iran is the world's fourth largest oil producer. Iranian oil production volumes up 5% of the world.

In an anonymous memo is located in Hong Kong Energy Agency reported that during the last decade, oil production in Iran has been steadily declining due to limited resources.

Another member of the Iranian oil exchange could be Venezuela, whose President Hugo Chavez is not averse to substitute George W. Bush bandwagon.

As for other countries - exporters of oil, they are unlikely to follow the example of those two odious regimes. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Mexico, Canada and Norway, countries that are allied with the U.S. and trade relations are unlikely to adopt the euro. Norway in particular, since neither the country nor the United Kingdom, two countries producing oil on the northern shelf and not adopted the euro as their currency.

Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested in 2003 the thought of the possibility of selling Russian oil for euros, but a few days later, Russian officials said they rejected the idea. "This issue is not even worth discussing - the then Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov. - If the whole world trades oil in dollars, so it is convenient and buyers and sellers. "

Analysts noted that all other countries except Iran and Venezuela will be guided by the foreign trade not political but commercial interests. If the same policy will prevail over common sense, but political demarche is unlikely to have a strong influence on the world market. So after the U.S. decision to block the state oil company operations in six U.S. ports, a number of Arab countries made statements about the possible diversification of their assets.

March 14 London Independent reported that the United Arab Emirates plan to convert 10% of their dollar assets into euros. At the same time, the head of the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia stated that, in his opinion, the U.S. decision to block the port of Dubai is "discrimination."

Foreign exchange market did not react to these demarches, which is a good example of how the conversations of politicians, not in a position to undermine the U.S. dollar.

Now try to figure out with what the country's oil importers prefer to buy oil for euros instead of dollars. Although the actual weight of the dollar as world reserve currency has steadily decreased over 70% of international reserves, by which is funded and world trade is denominated in U.S. dollars. Only Japan and China own U.S. government bonds and other dollar assets worth about 2 trillion dollars. China has never stated its intention to convert their assets into euros, and only carefully probed the ground on this issue. In this reviewer officials involved in soundings, made People's Bank of China - Central Bank of the Eastern countries.

Japan and China found themselves in very difficult situations. On the one hand, the U.S. is their debtor-hostage. But on the other hand, those countries themselves are hostages of the U.S.. The depreciation of the dollar, which will undoubtedly occur, if the popularity of axis of evil, will cause the devaluation of their currency reserves.

All risks of attempts intentionally or unintentionally "omit" the U.S. dollar came to the surface July 21, 2005, when the Central Bank of China abolished the yuan's tight binding to the dollar (exchange rate was 8.28 yuan per dollar one) and announced that the binding of its currency to a basket of foreign currencies, and also about 2% m corridor to the Dollar / Yuan. For several hours the yuan rose to the current level. At the time of the decision of the Central Bank currency reserves of China amounted to 600 billion U.S. dollars. Rise of yuan by 2% against the dollar led to the fact that China has lost $ 30 billion in foreign reserves.

According to the analytical review of the CIA, China and Japan are two of the world's leading importers of oil, although the volume of consumption, they lag far behind the U.S., which produce 7.1 million barrels per day while consuming about 20 million barrels.

Finally, we will try to answer one more question. What will the country who will receive the exported oil in euros? European market bonds and sloppy in the market by its U.S. bond yield and reliability. And in the old Europe is no place for large investment projects, which could be invested axis of evil.

In short, those who receive euro from the sale of oil, will have to change them for dollars. In November 2000, when Saddam Hussein announced his intention to sell oil not in dollars, and the euro, economists of the United Nations decided that Iraq would lose at the same time about 270 million U.S. dollars. These losses could recover only if the euro would rise against the dollar by 17%.

It is unlikely that the countries that hold their assets in U.S. bonds that will en masse to diversify into the euro in case of Tehran Oil Bourse. The reason for such a move would serve only the threat of the collapse of the dollar. And the probability of collapse is really great, because the already huge trade and budget deficits are growing, thanks to the irrational fiscal policies of the Bush administration. It is in this lies the real threat to the United States.

OIL - A TOOL MARKET PRESENTATION

With the increase in oil prices, raw material market has become the most attractive market for financial investors. In the world of trading financial instruments and a variety of petroleum products is relevant because of its value and volatility allows investors to make money even at the minimum market fluctuations.

Futures for crude oil increased significantly in volume, which respectively attracted many new investors.

Grades of oil in the world very much. Almost every oil-producing country in the world market supplies several types of crude oil. The chemical composition of crude oil is different from well to well and to facilitate exports, were invented by some standard varieties of oil. For Russia, the Urals and a Siberian Light. In the UK - Brent, Norway - Statfjord, Iraq - Kirkuk, in the U.S. - Light Sweet. It often happens that a country produces two grades of oil - light and heavy. For example, in Iran and that Iran Light Iran Heavy. In Russia, light crude - a Siberian Light, and the Urals - hard. The price of crude oil is considered relative to its cost per barrel.

Barrel translates to English as a barrel. Historically, U.S. oil barrels were measured. On the barrel, as with any off-system unit, a lot of confusion - the standard American barrel is 119.24 liters dry barrel - 115.6 liters. Blue oil barrel (bbl) is 158.98 liters.

Major oil exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and London International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). Oil contracts are traded on the Singapore and SIMEX (Singapore International Monetary Exchange). Perhaps in the near future Petroleum Exchange opens in Russia. Most recently received a license and will soon begin trading oil and gas industry Interregional Exchange (MBNTK), established on the basis of the concept of the Ministry of Energy.
On the NYMEX and IPE traded marker species in New York Light Sweet London Brent. Trading on both exchanges are carried out "voice" way, but in recent years are widely used electronic systems. In the major London auction held from 10:02 to 20:13 (12:02-22:13 in Kiev) and in New York - from 9:00 to 13:30 (16:00-20:30 in Kiev). This means that for four and a half hours of trading on both exchanges occur simultaneously.

A standard lot in both cases is 1,000 barrels, the minimum price change - 1 cent, but prices themselves are set in dollars and cents per barrel.

Price volatility in the oil market is very high, a dollar difference between the highest and lowest prices of the day - not the limit and not an isolated case. Unfavorable combination of circumstances can lead to significant losses, but the profit potential here is extremely high.

Quotes of the nearest futures Brent and Light Sweet on the whole fairly well correlated, but the spread between them is constantly changing due to local differences in American and European markets, but also because of different time expiration (performance) contracts, which allows for arbitrage between exchanges.

Oil prices (oil) (exchange and OTC) are determined by two key factors - the current ratio and the expected supply and demand dynamics of the costs. Because accurate data on the current global balance of supply and demand of oil is not a great importance attached to information about changing the stock of oil - the strategic and industrial, political events in oil producing regions that may affect the dynamics of production, growth forecasts for the economy, which affects the dynamics of consumption and as well as the strategy of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel-established oil-producing nations to stabilize oil prices). The members of this organization are a country whose economy is largely dependent on revenues from oil exports. The main purpose of the organization - control over oil prices.
Trade oil contracts - is trading on the floor of the exchange. However, a group of Japanese oil companies and trading houses plan to create an online exchange for trading oil futures contracts. The new trading platform, which will be called J-Oil Exchange, can begin its work in the near future. The joint venture will be registered in Singapore. Its market capitalization is approximately 400 million yen (3.26 million dollars), said the representative of Mitsubishi Corp. Among the founders of the new Internet exchanges will be companies like Showa Shell Sekiyu KK, Japan Energy Corp, Mitsubishi Corp, Mitsui & Co Ltd. In addition, the establishment of stock exchanges are planning to attend an investment bank Morgan Stanley and South Korean oil company SK Corp. In the first months of operation the exchange will provide services only to companies that are its founders. According to a Mitsubishi, in the first year of operation is planned to increase annual turnover of exchange up to 200 billion yen (1.640 billion dollars).

Trading oil futures on the stock exchange requires considerable resources. To provide access to trading oil investors do not have large cash resources, our company has developed a tool that allows you to trade oil, having the bill very small amount. Under the terms of trade in oil in our terminal iTrader, traded a minimum lot of 100 barrels, and the required initial margin of 5% of the transaction. If we assume that the price of a barrel of oil, when the transaction is equal to 60.0 UAH., Then having to account only 300 USD. You can become a bidder of this tool.

Triumphant march of the 'golden bull

Since 1999, the gold price almost always increases. Over the past two years it has risen in price by 27%. Only in December 2002, an increase of 9%. But who can answer the question: what is the real price of gold, and what surprises may be expected from its motion in the near future? Analysts disagree on this.

Roaring eightieth
If you make a small excursion into history and see what world events are accompanied by a jump in gold prices over the past twenty years, you get an interesting picture. The most dramatic upsurge daily gold price at auction in London on January 21, 1980, when the price of an ounce to $ 850, was preceded by entering the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 and the refusal of the U.S. Congress to ratify the SALT-2. You should not take off and approved by the U.S. Congress act on monetary control and the deregulation of depository institutions. He expanded the powers of banks, as well as increased competition in the securities market, which brought the banks as much cash as deposits. Throughout the 1980 United States shook the wave of inflation. The situation in the gold market has stabilized until the end of January 1981 And after Iran released the American hostages during the Islamic Revolution, the gold price has dropped and averaged $ 459.71 an ounce. Strangely enough, but the "Black Monday" October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones index fell one day at 508.32 points, has not led the U.S. into recession, the strength is comparable with the fall of 1929 Investors prefer not to seek refuge in gold, and in government bonds.

During 1988 the price of gold constantly declining due to factors such as the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan, the fall in oil prices and the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Large-scale operation anti-Iraqi coalition forces, "Desert Storm" began on 16 January 1991 and lasted 43 days. Transience of the fighting is not allowed is strong enough to scare investors, and the media may not have experience in filing consolidated, "a portrait of the enemy." The decrease in the value of gold in the early 90s. largely influenced by such factors as the collapse of the Soviet Union. The average price of an ounce of gold on the London Stock Exchange in 1991 amounted to $ 362.19.

"Stagnant" ninetieth
By the end of the 90s. Europe has begun to prepare for entering the single currency, central banks and European countries intensified the selling of gold reserves. In May 1999 the Bank of England announced its plans to sell more than half its gold reserves: 415 of 715 tons. This triggered panic and a collapse in prices during the summer. However, in September, the central banks of Europe have agreed to limit gold sales over the next five years to 400 tons per year. This again caused confusion in the market, as investors rushed to adjust their positions. On average in the last year of second millennium gold price has not changed, remaining at $ 278.76 per troy ounce. True, she fell in the summer to the lowest mark for the past 20 years (less than $ 250 per ounce). But in early October, the price briefly rose above $ 330. The Balkan crisis and NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the alliance have had little impact on the price of precious metals amid fears that the IMF may be a large-scale intervention of gold on world markets. At the turn of the millennium upward movement of gold began after September 11, 2001 Two weeks after the price has risen by 7% to $ 291.40 an ounce. Immediately prior to U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, analysts on Wall Street talk about that "golden bear" has become a "gold bull." As if to confirm this, October 8, after the announcement of the beginning of military operations the Australians, thanks to its geographical position, first met the new trading day and the middle raised the price to $ troy oz 293.35. Rose and gold stocks. Then zalihoradilo other world markets. In December gold was fixed at $ 295 per ounce, as though waiting for what will be the balance of power after the appearance of such a player, as the euro. In 2002, gold prices continued to rise slowly until the end of May. Then broke the border conflict between nuclear powers - India and Pakistan. At the same time the U.S. president said that the sting operation the terrorists can not be limited to one in Afghanistan. After such a "cocktail" of news price of gold in European trading platforms has jumped to its highest level over the past 27 months. Since May 21, the spot price was $ 316.50 per troy ounce. From the beginning till the end of May the gold price has increased by 14%.

Christmas Gifts
The bellicose statements of George W. Bush and Tony Blair of Great Britain premerministra a military strike on Iraq, completely shattered the nerves of investors, and they rushed into the harbor under the name of saving the gold. The climax came on 19 December, when investors are expecting that the White House accused Iraq of violating UN resolutions on disarmament, raised the price of gold to $ 353.75 an ounce. It was the biggest price since March 1997.

The last gold in 2002 ended on a confident note, reached in morning trading in London $ 347.75 per troy ounce, leaving analysts to wonder how far it will continue to rise next year.

Without a doubt, the decline in interest rates in the U.S., the gradual shift from gold producers hedge, geopolitical instability, the fall of the indices the securities market and the weakness of the dollar provided yellow metal in 2002, almost continuous growth. Do not expect that the price for it in the near future to change their direction. However, keep in mind that 2004 will be decisive for George Bush because he has to go through a second presidential election. In Europe, the winter flood in 2003 may affect the inflationary picture of the member countries of the European Union.

The magazine "Sun" readers are already familiar with the manipulation of bank JP Morgan Chase in the gold market. Suspicions about the scams in the gold market are further confirmation. In the second half of December 2002, just before the Christmas holidays, the largest U.S. firm on retail sales of precious metals, Blanchard and Co. put forward a claim for $ 2 billion from one of the largest U.S. bank JP Morgan Chase and the Canadian mining group Barrick Gold, accusing them of manipulating gold prices.

The indictment says that American and Canadian miners bank for several years held back the growth of gold prices. They receive billions in profits on short sales, giving each other preferential treatment such that were unavailable to other market participants. Low gold prices also gave the second-largest gold miner Barrick Gold to buy up the possibility of other mining companies. Manufacturer Blanchard and Co. argues that if it were not for illegal activities of the bank and the Canadian gold miner, gold price by the end of 2002 would have increased to $ 350 per troy ounce, and at least $ 740-750.

Bank JP Morgan Chase declined to comment on the charge, and representatives of Barrick Gold shallows all the claims, stating that the company is widely practiced hedging their products and often is offering additional amounts of gold in forward contracts even before it produced. And in order to minimize the movement of prices, the company borrows gold from banks, including those at JP Morgan Chase, and then sells it on the spot market.

THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE - FOREX OR STOCKS

Where better, easier and faster you can earn money? On the currency, stock or commodity markets? This is one of the most common questions among beginners.

There are many answers. All of them depend on personal taste and meets the inner motives.

When investors are burning like matches ...

Never forget that the personal welfare of employees of financial institutions depends on the amount of funds committed by investors and transactions. For employees of financial companies - this is a matter of life and death. Financial incentives can doubt the veracity of the information provided to potential investors employees of individual companies.

Some of these estimates even become a myth. Here are just a few examples:

• investors in the FOREX like a match lit, and the stock market situation is significantly better;

• have direct access to traders, individuals (retail) in the U.S. market;

• there are wonderful systems that safely and quickly become a millionaire.

Let's look at these three "conventional" views and estimate their validity. I could not find any more or less reliable statistics on the participants of currency, stock or commodity markets for the following:

1. The number of new investors studied, the percentage of remaining a year or two, three. Stability of their work.

2. Relationship original deposit with time finding investors in the market and the state of his accounts at the time of termination.

3. The influence of experience (duration of the financial markets) or the method of execution of transactions on the effectiveness of speculative operations.

In general, no, even implausible statistics. There are no figures. Only links - such as "existing opinion," "believe," "anticipate," "an estimated", etc.

The reasons for this situation in the industry understand the financial speculation and understandable - a trade secret. However, would argue that there is no significant difference between the life expectancy of the investor at any financial market (FOREX, stocks, futures, etc.) and the ability to earn or lose money. There can be! Naturally, provided that you are dealing with an honest company and not the "kitchen" dealing, establishing their own rules. There are no fundamental differences be easily explained. In financial markets you are trading risks and probabilities, rather than stocks, futures or currencies. The difference between the markets only in the rules of the game: the legal framework, methods of execution of transactions, margin collateral, the liquidity of the financial product.

What determines the success or failure?

Success or failure is determined by understanding the risks and regulations, the ability to use them. The risk of bankruptcy is always higher than the state. A much greater variety of external influences that may affect the value of shares. Accordingly, the risks of financial speculation in shares of companies is higher than in currency. Legal issues, however, worked better in the stock market. High volatility of currencies, for example, is not connected with the currency and terms of trade (leverage 1:100).

Success or failure is determined by financial speculation in the probabilistic risk assessment of certain financial instruments, trading conditions, performance trasaktsy and other operations and, of course, proper risk management during the reporting period. Mathematics, psychology and proper risk assessment determine the effectiveness of the trader, not a financial market in which it operates.

The main reasons for the "experts" from the stock market is not recommended to open an account on the FOREX, the following: the unreliability of keeping money in the account broker, broker quotes and the difference of the information system, a large spread (5-10 points), shoulder (1:100) and too small a number of financial instruments. These statements are quite controversial. The unreliability of keeping money in the account broker - more than a matter of dispute. Brokers operating in the U.S. stock and futures markets, hedge accounts of their clients. In the currency market - a similar situation. All major companies, Russian or Western, insure customers' accounts on its segregated account of the bankruptcy of any external causes. The only difference is who insures what insurance company? That she will get money.

From the risk of losing money as a result of financial transactions insures no ne. From bankruptcy is not insured by any clearing house or broker, working in various financial markets. Just as the problems with the payment of the insurance company - especially if it is somewhere very far away. Choosing a broker - is always a risk that must be considered when making decisions. For example, brokerage firms involved in proprietary-trading * bankrupt more often than others. The difference in the quotes of different information systems in the currency market appears quite often (the reason for the organizational structure of the market FOREX) and not more than a few points. There is no danger for you.

In all financial markets (currency, stock, futures) to increase its profits brokers use the delay in the execution of the order. That should be wary.

Next - the spread. What is important is not the spread, and its relation to the base. Let's calculate the spread on the Swiss franc at 5 points at the base value of 1.6873 percentage. Less than 0.003 per cent! For stock valued at $ 30 with a spread of 1 cent, this value is 10 times more. During strong motions increases the relative spread in all financial markets. It is difficult to assess where more. Do the math - and see for yourself. Margin requirements. Leverage 1:100. The higher the leverage, the greater the risk. It is an axiom. But only if you fail to comply with the rules of risk management. Violation is punishable by the same margin rules in all financial markets - the liquidation of positions. As for the number of financial instruments in the foreign exchange market, so it is not so little, given the exotic currencies and cross rates. Differ only by brokers: some are for these services, others do not. Operations in all financial markets can make money. The risks and potential rewards them comparable. Unless, of course, is not considered unlikely. Miracles, for example. Type: FOREX with the initial deposit of $ 1,000 or U.S. stock market - online or from $ 2,000 Day Trader with direct access to the $ 5,000-10,000. Or other, united by one idea - to make a penny out of a million. We, thus, gradually came to the next question.

Miracle System

There are wonderful systems that will safely and quickly become a millionaire. The fruit of labor or the labor collective genius, which - from noble motives, for a modest bribe, or even for free - you are willing to share. You believe that? I - no. Almost by Stanislavski - and I do not believe anything with can not do. The financial markets without a system is impossible. Therefore, all systems have the right to life, even the most improbable. No wonder only systems, universal money-making machines.

Any system under certain conditions and over time can bring you the money if it is based on mathematics, psychology and discipline. It does not matter on which it is based. On the old, time-tested, simple indicators, such as moving average, RSI, or some new indicators that show an unusually high number of regular points of entry or exit. The system can be established even in the office of weather reports or on the number encountered in the morning blondes or brunettes.

No action! Just wait ...

Let's create a system that will allow you to earn money. We need the statistics. Any - positive or negative - would be accurate. At least 300 observations for 3-5 months, depending on the financial market. The increase in the number of observations and duration of the test are welcome.

Define the first indicator, K1: the ratio of positive and negative transactions when using the system, for example, 0.4. This figure shows that four out of ten your prediction comes true. Not a very good result, but it is yours, and so you have to work with him. Fit any figure, only that it is accurate. Will it be 0.8 or 0.1 - now it does not matter.

Stop-loss is necessary, otherwise the losses may be irreversible. The choice of stop-loss will depend on how your trading (day-, swing or position trading) and the volatility of the financial instrument in the range of time. Stop-loss should not be too small, and is best expressed in monetary units. For example, $ 500. We add to this value, the average cost per trade (in terms of a transaction) fees, rent, equipment, etc. Now we have a second important factor - the loss factor K2. Suppose, in monetary terms, it is $ 550.

If you are trying to keep your operations on the financial markets were, at least, break even, then the profit, which should count when entering the market, can not be less than (550 x 0.6): 0.4 = $ 825.

A trading system is built. Check it out at the demo and if it works, go to the real score. Open positions and wait. Wait until executed stop-loss or profit. Or - or. No action! Just wait for order execution. On your side probability and expectation.

It must be remembered that conditions in financial markets are constantly changing, and any system can fail to give. Not scary. Must observe the following rule. Three failures in a row, and you come out of the market for at least 2-3 weeks to rest and review what happened. Repeated series of failures will require a new system. Experiment! In the financial markets is not easy to achieve stable results, but some are successful. When you create individual trading systems are very useful demos and demo accounts.

Attitude to foreign trade systems should be extremely cautious. In one company, which operates in the U.S. stock market, I saw a system based on fluctuations in volatility movements of the two stocks. The principle of the system was simple. Selected two stocks that have mutual influence on each other, and the graphic changes in prices within a certain range of time is the same (symmetric). With the help of the coefficient value of each share package equal. One sold, another is for sale.

It is used quite a lot of couples in which one and the same action in one case sold, and in another - for sale. It is easy to guess that by using such systems, many do not win and lose. If, of course, does not happen that something extraordinary - in fact you are operating a spread volatility.

The system is designed to generate transactions. The larger the transaction commits brokerage firm, the lower the cost of transactions and, consequently, higher profits by offering competitive commissions for retail traders. Market - it is the market What are these systems? And how it should relate to the investor?

Trading system - just a tool that can benefit and harm. In our case, it all depends on the origin of money. If they belong to the brokerage company, engaged in proprietary-trading, the company runs the risk of their own money, partly to reduce the fees of retail traders. The benefits of such activities is undeniable. We can only welcome the fact of the creation of such systems.

But things could be different. Simultaneous opening and closing of positions on the same stock can be solved in-house at a brokerage firm. Money may belong to the investor and management company referred to in the hope that they will work with professional traders appropriate license and expanded trade. Of course, no guarantees. Guarantees in the financial markets do not exist!

Imagine the expression of the investor who entrusted money to a company when he received a multimeter print perfect transaction, will not see expected returns and learns that his means of managing traders without a license. True, the big losses and profits will not.

Multimeter documented "hard work" a trader there, as well as assurances from the company that it has made everything possible. Everything is beautiful and decent, all rights reserved. Investor can not complain. Market - it is the market.

The company pleased: he borrowed other people's money. This leaves the investor - not a problem, there will be new. New in the search for Pinocchio in Wonderland never translated. As well as wishing to take advantage of their simplicity.

In considering any trading method, you must always remember what matters most - on the contrary interests. Investor interest - profit. Interest in the brokerage firm - the commission. Each side is trying to get better conditions, and is always a compromise. These are the rules of life, and so works all of the financial markets industry. Do not forget about it.

"Direct access to retail traders in the U.S. market - is a myth. I want you to have had no unpleasant surprises, and so you can make the right decisions "- these words belong to Don Bright (Don Bright), a professional trader, co-owner of Bright Trading (www.stocktrading.com) [1]. In the opinion of the authority's hard to disagree. He knows what he is talking. Retail investors do not have control over the execution of their orders. But there are many restrictions and prohibitions. The very fact that the differences in conditions and opportunities for trade between the professional (licensed) by traders and retail traders evidence in favor of this view.

'Conventional' opinions much more. It makes no sense to list them. More important to understand that financial markets can and should make money. You only need to make informed, thoughtful decisions. "Behold the root!". This classic phrase will help you choose the right solution on the market.

Footnotes: * Giving the private traders the means to increase firm's operations.

Working day foreign exchange dealer

Business day exchange dealers of Western commercial banks generally begins at 7:30 am local time. At 8:00 AM dealers are already actively doing deals. The morning half an hour usually devoted to a brief analysis of developments in world currency markets at the beginning of work. Dealers and senior dealers use economic and technical analysis of the market, read analytical articles in the press, exchange points of view, as well as fresh rumors with each other and with dealers from other commercial banks.


On the basis of various data gradually emerging picture of possible behavior of the exchange rate for the day with different versions of the probability of certain events.


By 8 o'clock in the morning market, consisting of individual dealers, develops tactics and behavior as a whole begins to be included in the operation of the world, "the foreign exchange market, giving a new impetus to the movement of energetic exchange rate.


Various territorial markets can provide the following characteristics of the average typical activity during the day.


Far East


Here, the most active deals in the market forex transactions dollar Japanese yen, the dollar mark, marks the yen and the dollar to Australian dollar, but in general, fluctuations in the exchange rate rather low (20-50 pips). In Moscow at this time of night and morning (before noon in Moscow, you can work with Tokyo to lunch - with Singapore).


Europe


At 10:00 Moscow time the market opens in the European financial centers of the mainland - Zurich, Frankfurt-am-Main, Paris, Luxembourg. However, the really powerful movement of the exchange value of the dollar against other major currencies (in particular, to the German mark) begins after 11-00 Moscow time, when the London market opens. It lasts usually for two to three hours, after which the dealers of the European banks go to lunch - lunch, and market activity is slightly reduced. Fluctuations in exchange rates may be within 10-15 pips (dealers call it dead or dull market - dead or boring market), but at times can reach 70 - 100 pips (ie, large pieces), which is characterized as lively and busy market (bouant or busy market).


North America


The situation comes alive again with the opening of the market in New York at 16:00 Moscow time, when the start working dealers of American banks, and returned with lunch European dealers. Force of European and American banks are about equal, so the fluctuations of the rate does not go beyond the usual European fluctuations. Nevertheless, foreign exchange dealers look forward to the opening of the New York market to get fresh data on the possible movement of the course (especially if the European market has been sluggish). However, after the close of the European market (about 19-20 hours Moscow time), aggressive American banks, left alone to "thin" market, can lead to a drastic change in dollar exchange rate to the deutsche mark, yen, pound sterling, and so on this time accounted the most dramatic movements of exchange rates - up to 400 - 500 pips (USD / DEM), which corresponds to a few percentage points of changes in value.


The Moscow market


Operations in the interbank foreign exchange market characterized by a certain specificity of Russia, in contrast to the world market of hard currencies. It stems from the fact that during the day at the market exchange transactions current dollar / ruble operations are conducted with different value dates. Start the day Moscow dealers operating in the domestic foreign exchange market is calm enough - taking stock of the past day, conducted strategic planning of possible developments in the market today, based on fundamental analysis, technical and other factors (eg, gossip).


At 11 o'clock in the morning session starts the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX), the results of which it becomes clear the balance of demand and supply of currency, the policy of the Central Bank to regulate the degree of exchange rate, and also determines the dollar to the ruble to be adopted as an official.


At the time of the announcement start fixing the active process of inter-bank currency trading for "today» (today). Beginning immediately after fixing the MICEX, the market gradually reduce speed and almost dies down to dinner (14-00 Moscow time), although sporadic transactions can be carried out until the evening. The course of today (or tod) is formed in the first minutes after the fixing of the exchange on the basis of information about new MICEX rate, based on yesterday's exchange rate calculations tomorrow (which to this day has become today), as well as the positions of banks.


After half an hour after the start of the market today there is conversion calculations market transactions calculations of "tomorrow» (tomorrow), whose rate is calculated as one-day course on the course today ayutrayt through interest rates such as "overnight" on the ruble money market. Operations calculations of "Tomorrow" continues into the evening (usually up to 18-00, although the case and the later transaction), reducing the activity of several during the lunch break (from 13 to 15 hours).


The specifics of the Russian market is that both courses are the current dollar exchange rate against the ruble (similar to the spot rate) since the operations in these markets are the current operations of banks to manage their, balance sheets, client implementation and conversion of the arbitration. In this course tom, designed initially as a forward rate from the course today, during the day as the end of the market today is directly the current rate.


In the afternoon there is market transactions on the spot calculations, the rate of which is also defined as a one-day course outright, but the course tom, but of fundamental importance for the market dollar / ruble they have not.